We’re probably not getting an 11th-gen iPad this year

After a historic lull that saw more than 12 months between releases, 2024 has been a pretty good year for iPad releases. The iPad mini was just updated, iPadOS 18 shipped just last month, and Apple released the new M4 iPad Pro, M2 iPad Air, and Apple Pencil Pro this spring–and for good measure, it even threw in Final Cut for iPad 2.0 and Logic Pro for iPad 2.0 for good measure.

While all these new iPad products are partying inside the house that 2024 built, there’s one product on the outside looking in: the standard 10th-gen iPad. It was originally released in 2022 and never received a 2nd-gen update, so it seems like it would be in Apple’s plans for an update soon.

If you put together some recent developments, however, there’s one conclusion that can be logically reached: the standard iPad isn’t getting updated this year. Here’s why I think we’ll have to wait until next year for the 11th-generation iPad.

The iPad mini (A17 Pro) goes stag to the 2024 party

The fact that Apple announced the new iPad mini all by itself is a huge indicator that an iPad update isn’t coming. When the 10th-gen iPad was announced, it featured major changes, such as the front-facing camera moving to the horizontal side, a bigger display than the 10.2-inch 9th-gen model, and the removal of the Home button. We don’t expect any drastic changes to the next iPad–a chip update, maybe some new colors, and that’s about it. So that would make the 11th-gen iPad a great product to release at the same time as the new iPad mini, which also received a minor spec bump. But it didn’t happen.

Before the new iPad mini was released, speculation was that it would be revealed at the same time as the new M4 Macs that have been reported to be coming soon. So, it’s possible Apple could release the next iPad with the M4 Macs, but it seems unlikely.

U.K., European changes to the 10th-gen iPad

In Europe and the U.K., the new iPad mini does not include a charger. This was done to conform to European Union legislation that not only mandates the use of “a common standard port” but also that “the sale of chargers will be unbundled from the sale of electronic devices so that a new charger will not necessarily be included when buying a new device” to reduce electronic waste. We saw the same thing with the iPad Air and iPad Pro releases earlier this year.

Along with the iPad mini, Apple also took the charger out of the 10th-gen iPad box in those regions, effectively changing the manufacturing process for the tablet. If it was planning on introducing a new model this year, it would be a lot simpler for Apple to just replace it with a new 11th-gen iPad without a charger, instead of reconfiguring the 10th-gen iPad’s bundle. That leads us to believe that Apple has no plans to release a new model anytime soon.

Want more evidence? Apple also reduced the price of the 64GB 10th-gen iPad to £329 in the U.K., a £20 reduction over the previous price. And the E.U. price for the same model is now €399, down from €429. That’s aggressive pricing for a product heading into the holiday season—not one that will be replaced in a few weeks.

In the U.S., the 10th-gen iPad still includes a charger, and the price has not changed, but Apple’s not going to launch a new model in just one region.

No Apple Intelligence support

The main reason we expected an update to the 10th-gen iPad is because of Apple Intelligence. The new set of AI features will not run on devices with less than 8GB of unified memory, and the 10th-gen iPad’s A14 Bionic chip only has 4GB of RAM. When Apple Intelligence starts its rollout in the next few weeks, the 10th-gen iPad won’t be part of it, the only iPad that won’t support the AI features.

Apple’s entry-level iPhone, the SE, also doesn’t support Apple Intelligence. Rumors say it will get an upgrade to an A18 chip next spring along with a significant redesign. The 11th-gen iPad could get an update at the same time, which would give Apple Intelligence to both of Apple’s budget models. Or Apple could leave the low-end iPad as the only tablet that doesn’t support Apple Intelligence as a way to push people to the other models.

Either way, one thing is clear: We’re waiting until at least 2025 for a new iPad.